Expert Chaslau Koniukh
  • Companies
  • Global investment
  • Investors
  • Terminology
  • Economy
  • Stock Market
  • World exchanges
  • Tech and Marketing
potential of the rouble
Analytics

Raiffeisenbank analysts: risks limit the ruble potential

30.11.2020
2 min read

Raiffeisenbank analysts evaluated the potential of the ruble

The pandemic and the oil war led to the collapse of the ruble, but a few months later the situation began to recover. The Russian currency shows good dynamics, it is strengthening against the dollar, but there is a slight slump against the euro. The potential of the rouble is quite high, but there are still many risks that hold investors back.
The dividend period for Russian companies has already passed, and this volatile capital has also had an impact on the domestic market rate. Corporations have been selling currency for payments, and a number of foreign securities holders have been conducting reverse transactions. All this revived the exchange rate and had a positive impact on the ruble.
Raiffeisenbank analysts assessed the prospects and current situation. In their opinion, the ruble is gradually strengthening, although the risk of weakening is still high.
After the lifting of quarantine measures, the country’s economy began to recover actively, and the first results are already visible. Experts expect that the volume of imports will increase in the near future, as well as dividend payments. This will keep the balance of operations near zero. If we evaluate the trends in the current ruble exchange rate in relation to the cost of oil, the account balance may reach $1.3 billion by the end of the year.

potential of the rouble

However, such a scenario is possible, if GDP recovery continues, and it rises from -5.7% to -0.7%. In this case, we can expect a 30% increase in import volumes. In addition, an important role is played by the restriction of currency sales, which was introduced by the Central Bank, and the receipt of dividends in the amount of $14 billion.
Low account balances are not enough to compensate for the export of capital, which is observed in the private sector. Some assets are used to repay external debt, and foreign investors’ investments are still small for a rapid economic recovery.
According to analysts, if there are various factors, one can expect the rate to fall to 75 rubles per dollar. In the meantime, the currency can be kept within 71 rubles.
For the national currency, risks are observed not only in the domestic market. Global events also affect its stability. For example, the U.S. plans to change its monetary policy and increase sanctions, which will lead to a fall in the exchange rate and reduce the attractiveness of the Russian market for foreign investors.
The national currency is directly linked to the oil price, so any fluctuations in the cost of raw materials cause instability of the exchange rate. It should be understood that there are still too many risks for the ruble, and they should be read to implement the domestic policy.

Tags: Analytics
0
Previous Post The U.S. Federal Reserve is printing dollars to support the market in times of crisis Next Post Why stock exchange indices are taking a hit before the US and Chinese negotiations

You Might Also Like

strengthening of the Russian ruble
Analytics
Will the Russian ruble strengthen until the end of 2021: forecasts from Credit Suisse
23.07.2021
stock market growth
Analytics
Goldman Sachs: when to expect stock market growth
03.02.2021
space industry
Analytics
Why the space industry deserves attention: a review by Freedom Finance
09.05.2021
Digital Gold
Analytics
Bitcoin: how digital gold develops
01.05.2020
High inflation: how to protect investments
Analytics
How to make high inflation work for yourself: views of the analyst
08.02.2022
rise in oil prices
Analytics
IEA: whether to expect oil prices to rise by 2040
04.04.2021

Popular Posts

  • Analysts: Egypt’s economy to continue falling in 2023
  • Businessman Chuck Feeney: the man who gave the world Duty Free
  • Field of activity of the American Monsanto Company Corporation
  • Spain’s economy performs best in the EU

Editor's Picks

Chaslau Koniukh
Analytics

American bankers from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs advise to invest in gold: review by Chaslau Koniukh.

Spokesperson
17.08.2020
Expert Chaslau Koniukh
Analytics

Chaslau Koniukh on the analysts’ opinion on the key stake size change soon

Spokesperson
18.06.2020
expert Chaslau Koniukh
Analytics

Chaslau Koniukh: Internet trade market in Russia may reach 2.78 trillion rubles.

Spokesperson
30.05.2020
Will the U.S. oil shale industry be able to quickly recover from the crisis: A Review by Chaslau Koniukh
Analytics

Will the U.S. oil shale industry be able to quickly recover from the crisis: A Review by Chaslau Koniukh

Spokesperson
16.05.2020

Popular Posts

  • Analysts: Egypt’s economy to continue falling in 2023
  • Businessman Chuck Feeney: the man who gave the world Duty Free
  • Field of activity of the American Monsanto Company Corporation
  • Spain’s economy performs best in the EU
  • Li Ka Shing: How can success be achieved without money and education?
Expert Chaslau Koniukh
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Instagram

© 2024 CHASLAU KONIUKH. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Expert in marketing and project management, international investments, financial analyst.

Menu

  • Biography
  • Companies and corporations
  • Global investment
  • Investors and Entrepreneurs
  • Economy
  • Market terminology
  • Stock Market
  • World exchanges
  • Tech and Marketing
  • Analytics