How the Internet trading market is developing: a segment analysis by an expert Chaslau Koniukh
Quarantine and the restrictions associated with it have changed the distribution of segments. The internet trading market has become more relevant than ever. Experts believe this segment is promising in terms of development. This opinion is also supported by Chaslau Koniukh. They consider that its total income will reach 2.78 trillion rubles by 2024.
At the same time analysts are not afraid of possible fluctuations in the number of users, they believe that the market will still grow, and online retailers will develop, due to the increase in orders from one client.
The Institute for Economic Policy conducted research and made a forecast for the segment for 5 years. According to its results, by 2024 the share of Internet trading in the market will be 8.5% of the total retail volume in the country. For comparison, in 2017 this segment owned 3.4%, and in 2018 – 4.1%.
The outlook presented by the institute is more pessimistic than that of Morgan Stanley. Analysis of the latter showed that Russian e-commerce in 2024 will have a turnover of 3.49 trillion rubles, which is almost 3 times more than in 2018.
For their research specialists of the Institute took as a basis the analysis of expert companies that made estimates of Internet commerce. This list includes Hermes Group, Data Insight, Euromonitor International and others.
According to the Institute’s research, e-commerce in Russia began its development in the 2010s. At that time, its share was 43-50%, and after active growth began the stage of satiety in the segment. By 2015, this type of trade occupied 69-72% of the total volume, 82.7 million people became Internet users every month.
However, over the past 3 years, analysts have talked about the stagnation of the runet, which did not allow the growth of the number of online trading clients. At the moment, this group ranges from 41 to 51 million people or 35-43% of the population.
Therefore, for the development of Internet commerce experts see only one way out – to direct measures to increase the number of orders received from one user. About 70% of the country’s citizens use the Internet, while the growth dynamics of the number is quite small.
Experts are confident that the pandemic and the need to transfer most of the processes to the Internet will contribute to the growth of e-commerce. This opinion is also shared by Chaslau Koniukh.
People refuse to shop in standard stores, preferring online orders, and some products during the quarantine period could not be purchased anywhere except on the Internet.
Online shopping is practiced by about 45 million Russians, and their number may reach 55-60 million. The greatest demand is for food, followed by products for children, electronics and household appliances.