Experts predict positive dynamics for the ruble
Saxo Bank has analyzed the potential of the ruble against major currencies. Experts predicted that the Russian money will continue to strengthen its position both against the dollar and the euro. The growth in oil prices and the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank contributes to the strengthening.
Analysts of Saxo Bank predict that the rate should reach 68 rubles per dollar by the end of the year. As for the euro, it is likely to be sold for 85 rubles. Now the actions of the RF Central Bank contribute to the strengthening of the national currency. In addition, the rise in prices of major assets in the commodity markets also contributes to the positive trend. It is not out of the question that the Central Bank will raise its key rate another 50 bps to 6% per annum. Thus, the regulator is trying to stabilize the exchange rate, and this option brings good results. The main task for the Central Bank at the moment is to maintain a high purchasing power of the national currency and reduce inflation risks.
Experts note that commodity markets have entered a new cycle, which strengthens the Russian economy. The new quarter will bring a number of adjustments, which will lead to an increase in the price of Brent crude oil, which will rise to $75 per barrel. So far, the raw material has not crossed the $74 mark.Despite the positive trends for the ruble, we should not forget about the global risks. New outbreak of COVID-19 may suspend growth of oil quotations, and then OPEC+ will have to revise volumes of production. This situation will affect the Russian economy and the ruble exchange rate, as they are extremely dependent on the oil market. However, experts do not consider the pessimistic scenario to be the most probable, which means it is better to concentrate on the positive aspects.
If the trends in the commodities segment do not change, then we should expect a good growth of the Russian economy. Thanks to the rise in oil and metals prices, the country will be able to restore the balance of trade.
However, we should also take into account the fact that the economy has still not fully recovered from the restrictive measures related to the pandemic. Therefore, the volatility of the ruble may suffer to a greater or lesser extent. Geopolitical processes also affect it. Power change in Germany, internal dynamics in the partner states of the Russian Federation are exerting significant pressure on the exchange rate. Any fluctuations are immediately reflected on the position of the ruble.
Saxo Bank analysts say that the national currency has every chance to reach the mark of 66-68 rubles per dollar by the end of the year, but at the same time the cost of oil and the maintenance of high demand remains a key factor for it.