Sberbank analyst talks about the situation with the exchange rate of the national currency
Sberbank analyst Anton Strucheniewski recently provided a forecast for the ruble exchange rate. He also pointed out the difficult periods for the national currency, and the factors that prevent its strengthening. According to the document, the rate against the euro and the dollar will grow, which is associated with a decline in the DXY index. And this situation will be observed with some periodicity, and so far there is no need to talk about the stability of the Russian money. The expert’s words are confirmed by the latest information from the stock exchange, where the ruble has gained about 30 kopecks against the dollar and 38 kopecks against the ruble.
The analyst notes that recently in the segment of risk capital there is a positive trend, but this fact has little effect on the national currency. Market players are worried about overbought various financial instruments on Russian exchange. In addition, the volatility index VIX shows that participants are very optimistic, and in some cases, the reigning euphoria may negatively affect the state of affairs in the future.
Experts have concerns about oil prices, which have recently stopped at a certain point and do not want to change. This factor affects the exchange rate and stability of the ruble, which means that we need to take a closer look at trends in this segment.
Struchenevsky notes that in the near future the national currency will be trading within the range of 73-74 rubles per dollar and 88-89 rubles per euro. As for the annual average forecast, the euro will grow more than the dollar. The European currency will grow up to Br90 rubles, while the U.S. currency – will remain at the level of Br72.
The second half of the year is characterized by good dynamics for strengthening the Russian money, but some difficulties may arise before the end of the current quarter. In this case the reason is the tourist component – the population is actively going on vacation, which contributes to increased demand for foreign currency. Moreover, thanks to vaccination the tourism segment is recovering quite actively, and many citizens choose foreign resorts. In addition, the growth of euro and dollar spending puts pressure on the ruble, but by the end of the year the situation should improve.
It should be noted that the Central Bank has left its key rate unchanged, at 4.25%. The regulator explained its decision by good trends in economic recovery; however, this news was perceived negatively on the financial markets. The ruble has weakened slightly, although analysts cannot give the exact reason. According to them, the national currency still needs support measures, despite the improvement of the situation compared to last year.