When to expect a new global economic crisis
Analysts have published a forecast of the global market development. According to its results, a new global economic crisis awaits mankind in the future. A significant slowdown can already be expected in the mid-20s. But according to Russian experts, the country has all chances to survive it with minimal losses.
Analysts expect the main blow to the world economy to come in the period of 2025-2026. According to the forecast of CMACP, by the end of the current year, the growth of world GDP will be about 4% annually. By 2030, the price of oil will rise to $82-85 per barrel. For markets, an additional impetus is the monetary policy aimed at stimulus. This will help reduce the risk of debt crisis for many countries.
In case of a conservative scenario, which implies a continuation of the pandemic, GDP growth is projected at 2-3% per year. In this case, the price of oil will be in the range of $50-55 dollars per barrel by 2025, and up to $65 per barrel by 2030.
However, both scenarios involve the possibility of an economic crisis in the second half of the decade. The base case assumes a cyclical crisis due to market overheating. In addition, analysts do not reject the possibility of avoiding a crisis, but then by 2025 one should expect a pause in growth, in which a fall will not be observed, but the rate of economic growth will fall to zero. In a conservative scenario, there would be a recession by 2025, which would eventually end with a debt crisis in Southern Europe and Turkey. The cause will be the pandemic and its aftermath.For Russia, analysts predict an increase in GDP of 1.5-2% every year for 10 years. However, in the event of a crisis, these figures will drop to zero. While the country’s economy is experiencing stagnation, the rate of its development, while remaining stable, is extremely low. The existing dynamics are not sufficient to keep the balance in the economy close to the indicators of developed countries. For Russia to improve its position on the global stage and the standard of living of its population, it is necessary to ensure a GDP growth of 3-3.5% a year. In addition, it is worth taking into account the demographic crisis that is being observed in the country. It entails a reduction in labor resources, and therefore hinders the development of the economy. Another problem of Russia is the poverty of the population. The number of citizens with incomes below the minimum wage is regularly increasing, and 10% of the population does not earn enough money even for food. The pandemic has exacerbated this situation, which requires an urgent solution.