Experts expect a slowdown in inflation: the first signals
After a prolonged growth, analysts noted a decline in prices on the German market, which may indicate a slowdown in inflation. This happened for the first time in 2.5 years when producers revised the cost of production downwards. The main factor of such a situation economists notes is the cheapening of energy carriers.
This trend was great news for the whole German economy, considering that since March 2020 prices in the domestic market have been growing steadily. Compared to last month, the cost has decreased by 4.2%, which was a record for the country. The fact is that the current price slowdown is the sharpest since 1949 when such observations began. And while in the previous few months the annual inflation rate in the manufacturing sector had held steady at 46%, the rate has now fallen to 34.5%. Despite the fact that it is still too early to talk about a stable fall in inflation, experts are still optimistic about the current trends and hope that they will persist in the future.
A number of economists believe that retail price growth should reach its peak soon, as this sector reacts to cost changes from producers with a delay of several months. In October the inflation rate in the consumer market was over 10%, but now the first signals are already coming in about a decrease in its growth rate.It should be noted that downward price trends from producers are observed not only in Germany. Similar changes are recorded in other economies of the world, for example, in China. Here a decrease in the cost of production was recorded at 1.3%, and it happened for the first time since the end of 2020. This signal indicates good prospects for the global market as a whole, as China is the leading exporter of industrial products.
Last month there was also a decline in the dynamics of price increases among U.S. manufacturing companies. Here the growth rate declined to 8%. For comparison, in June this indicator was at the level of 11.3%. And the improvement is already being felt in the U.S. retail market, where prices have also gone down.
The U.S. consumer market experienced its highest rate of inflation in June 2022. Its annual rate reached 9.1%, which was a record for the country for the last 40 years. However, after the peak, the momentum began to slow, and by the end of the year, inflation had fallen to 7.7%. This situation indicates that the tight monetary policy began to bring the desired result.