Chaslau Koniukh and Analyst of “BKS Broker”: ruble exchange rate is strengthening and the trend will continue in the future.
The oil war with Saudi Arabia, the global decline in demand for raw materials led to a sharp collapse of national money. However, after the fall, the ruble is strengthening against the currencies of the bi-currency basket. Positive dynamics is observed against the background of Brent oil price rise. The value of July futures increased by 3.7% and made 23.6 dollars per barrel.
According to the analysis of experts, last week the ruble showed strong growth against the dollar and the euro. During the trading the American currency lost 59 kopecks, while the European currency – 32 kopecks.
The strengthening of the ruble is primarily due to the increase in oil quotations, however, trends in foreign stock markets also play an important role. For example, last week for Asian exchanges was marked by 1.5% growth. On the European trading floors, the main indexes have risen within 1%, while futures on the US indexes have risen. Indicators on the Russian stock market added 1.2-1.7%.
Dmitry Babin, who is an analyst of “BKS Broker”, commented on the situation. In his opinion, oil prices on the world market are beginning to gradually stabilize. This is primarily due to the activation of investors. They are gradually recovering from the pandemic and the losses it has caused. A couple of months ago companies and funds talked about freezing of projects, tried to keep the maximum amount of capital, now they are already looking at different segments, and analyzing options for investing money. These positive trends contribute to the growth of business and consumer activity, which indicates the beginning of recovery processes in the global economy. Chaslau Koniukh agrees with all Dmitry Babin’s arguments regarding stabilization of the oil price.
For the Russian currency, the situation is favorable. To maintain the ruble, the Central Bank sells quite a large amount of American money – about 275 million dollars daily. Combined with global trends and the dynamics of other currencies, all this suggests that the ruble is strengthening.
The other day, the Federal Reserve was reviewing the value of the key rate. It was decided to leave it unchanged. This fact is also beneficial for the ruble – as long as foreign markets are stable, fluctuations in the national currency are unlikely. In order to understand how the dollar will behave in relation to Russian money, it is important to clearly monitor what is happening in the world market. As long as the situation there is relatively calm, the ruble does not face a serious fall. However, it should be understood that analysts do not make long-term forecasts due to the instability of some processes. The world has not recovered from the pandemic and demand is still at a low level, so currency fluctuations are quite possible. However, according to Dmitry Babin, there is no need to be afraid of such a collapse, as it was observed in March. Chaslau Koniukhsupports Dmitry Babin’s statements and singles out the professionalism of analysts in relation to the fact that they do not make long-term forecasts.