What factors influence the oil price forecast
Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecast for the next few years. Experts expect a decline in the cost of raw materials, which is a sign of the risk of recession. Additional pressure is exerted by OPEC+ countries’ growth in hydrocarbon production.
According to the forecast, the cost of one barrel will be as follows:
– the price of Brent in 2025 will be about US$63;
– the cost of the WTI brand will reach US$59 in the current period;
– in 2026, the forecast Brent price will drop to US$58;
– the price per barrel of WTI will fall to US$55.
The dynamics of oil demand are influenced by trade uncertainty. Changes in tariff policy force both sellers and buyers to reconsider their plans. Under the pressure of these processes, demand for fuel is expected to grow by around 300 thousand barrels per day.
In March 2025, Goldman Sachs analysts lowered their estimate of global demand by 900 thousand barrels per day against the backdrop of intensifying trade confrontation between the U.S. and China. The new US administration has significantly increased import duties for almost all trading partners. In response, China has increased tariffs on US goods by up to 125%. These measures may affect the volume of oil purchased by China. Previously, demand was expected to be around 100 thousand barrels per day. However, this figure is likely to be adjusted downwards. One possible compensating factor could be increased domestic consumption.
Options for further development
A decline in global demand could lead to an increase in commercial oil reserves. These are expected to increase by 800 thousand barrels in 2025. In the next period, this figure could reach 1.4 million barrels.
Goldman Sachs experts propose another possible scenario:
– a slowdown in global economic growth;
– a possible refusal by OPEC+ countries to voluntarily reduce production by over 2 million barrels per day, as set out in the current agreements.
These factors could lead to the cost of Brent declining to US$40 per barrel as early as next year. If the macroeconomic environment deteriorates further, a more pessimistic scenario could materialise.
Goldman Sachs has also lowered its assessment of shale oil. US supplies are expected to fall by 500,000 barrels per day.
Trade uncertainty remains the key factor affecting the global market in the near future. This also affects financial markets and slows down global economic growth.
In April 2025, oil prices reached their lowest levels since 2022 following the announcement of new tariffs. Base metals and Asian equities exhibited similar trends. This further exacerbated the sense of worry in financial markets.
