Global GDP is affected by trade and political uncertainty
According to updated estimates by IMF analysts, global GDP growth will be weaker than previously expected in 2025. This is due to the negative impact of trade policy changes triggered by the US tariff strategy.
Based on the forecast, global GDP growth will reach 2.8% this year. In 2026, it will amount to 3%. IMF analysts highlight two key factors putting pressure on the global economy:
– increased trade tensions provoked by tariff measures;
– high level of political and geopolitical instability.
In its January forecast, the IMF predicted global GDP growth of 3.3%. However, following a number of events on the international stage, analysts revised their estimates. The main pressure on economic processes came from tariff policy.
Following the introduction of new tariffs by the Trump administration, some countries announced retaliatory measures. Consequently, trade rates reached record levels not seen for 100 years. These developments came as a shock to the global market and negatively impacted the prospects of economic growth.
Additionally, the IMF noted the high degree of unpredictability that accompanied the introduction of duties. This made forecasting much more difficult and introduced instability into global processes.
Other fund forecasts
As well as providing an updated GDP forecast, the IMF offered new data on global inflation. Despite regulators’ efforts, inflationary pressures are falling more slowly than expected. Inflation is estimated to reach 4.3% in 2025, falling to 3.6% in 2026.
IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva also noted changes to the structure of the global trading system. It has become more fragmented, exacerbating national security issues. Many countries are therefore reforming their approaches to strengthen the local production of goods such as steel. Consequently, the focus is shifting from costs to sustainability and self-sufficiency.
In general, analysts have noted an increase in risks to the global economy. The trade war and the probability of its escalation will lead to lower GDP growth rates. This affects not only short-term expectations but also the long-term development outlook. Deepening disagreements between countries undermine confidence. This is reflected in lower business activity and caution on the part of both sellers and buyers.
The impact of exchange rate adjustments should also receive attention. Sudden shifts in capital flows can be especially damaging for debt-ridden economies. All of this could lead to prolonged financial instability and cause difficulties in the global monetary system.
Furthermore, demographic changes and a shrinking labour force are reducing the potential for economic growth. The global economy has not yet fully recovered from the effects of previous crises. New challenges could significantly increase systemic risks.
