Australia’s ore exports to increase by 1.7% in the 2026-2027 financial year
Ore exports from Australia may become less profitable than they have been. Analysts at the Specialist Department predict a decline in revenues from raw material supplies within two years. The main reason is the expected fall in ore prices on the world market.
According to experts, the cost of iron ore will be as low as US$80 per tonne by 2025. The prices of other commodities are also expected to fall. Experts are also predicting a strengthening of the Australian dollar, which will further reduce profits from export shipments.
According to the Department of Industry, the cost of iron ore over the next few years will be as follows:
– at the end of this year, the price will be US$92 per tonne;
– in 2025, the basic price per tonne will be US$80;
– in 2026, the cost of iron ore could fall to US$76 per tonne.
Iron ore is one of Australia’s most important export commodities. Despite the expected decline in product prices over the next few years, the country plans to increase shipments by 1.7% in 2026-2027. In the current financial year, earnings from ore exports will be A$107 billion. However, this is expected to fall to A$99 billion in 2025-2026.
Australia and Brazil remain the leading ore producers. They continue to increase their export volumes. In recent years, shipments have increased by more than 3% as new projects have come on stream. Australian producers are actively developing large deposits, while Brazilian companies are also increasing production. These are mainly Vale and CSN.
Experts expect global iron ore trade to grow, partly due to increased supply from African producers.
Overview of export shipments
In August, iron ore and pellet exports from Australia rose by 8% compared to the previous month. At the same time, the price of the 62% iron ore fell to US$99 per tonne. The decline was due to low margins at steel mills in China.
In September, shipments increased by 3.2% compared to the previous month. From January to September, exports of ore and pellets totalled 644 million tonnes. The main importers of Australian iron ore are:
– China, which purchased 541 million tonnes over the 9 months;
– South Korea, which imported 37.6Mt;
– Japan, which bought 37 million tonnes from Australia.
Notably, demand for Australian commodities has increased in Indonesia and Vietnam. Here, local producers are boosting production volumes and require large supplies. In addition, the rise in exports has been helped by the improvement in world market economics. One of the key factors has been the reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve System. This has stimulated trade and enhanced activity in commodity markets.
